How Lake Powell’s Water Levels Are Changing Ahead of Looming Winter Drought

Lake Powell’s water levels have experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year. From a three-year high in July, they are now 3,577 feet above mean sea level (MSL) as of October 24.
At this level, Lake Powell is 123 feet below the full pool level of 3,700 feet, according to data Lakes Online.
But while the lake is in much better shape than the historic lows of 2022, drought looms over the region this winter, which could stress water systems. Much remains uncertain as a possible La Niña may or may not develop in the Pacific Ocean in the coming months, impacting rainfall patterns across the nation.
Lake Powell, like many lakes in the West, including Lake Mead, has suffered from severe droughts in recent years. At this time in 2022, the water levels in what is the second-largest reservoir in the U.S. were critically low—nearly 50 feet lower than today.
Above-average snowmelt the following winter helped Lake Powell’s levels bounce back, a situation that continued to improve throughout 2023.
However, challenging times may lie ahead. In its latest seasonal drought outlook, released on October 17, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts drought development likely in lower Utah and northern Arizona, where Lake Powell sits, from October to the end of January.
“Right now, there’s a moderate drought in the upper headwaters of the Colorado River Basin with some abnormally dry conditions,” Hayden Mahan, a meteorologist with the NWS in Salt Lake City, told Newsweek.
“In terms of where we’re heading throughout the winter and the rest of fall, that’s a little bit up in the air.”
The NWS predicts either a weak La Niña or moderate conditions in the coming months. La Niña happens when strong winds blow warm surface water from South America toward Asia, allowing cold, deep water to rise to the surface along the South American coast.
The weather phenomenon has varying impacts in the U.S. In the south, warmer and drier conditions can ensue during La Niña, while in the north, a colder and wetter winter can occur.
Despite these concerns, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Mahan explained that the situation at Lake Powell is still “dire” but that higher-than-average snowmelt from the last two winters has helped the reservoir.
“If we have another good winter, then that will benefit Lake Powell greatly. But of course, if we have a much drier than normal winter, then it’s going to eat away at some of the gains we’ve made in the past,” he said.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Lake Powell? Let us know via [email protected].